Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?
0x83c1f3a017da0328c125772c43bef4c69bfb48d6ecd413e7f7128920914e4130 · closes Jun 30, 2026 · 77 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 1213.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 183.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1397% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 3.45 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 3.0/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 1214% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
260 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Hart Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x83c1f3a017da0328c125772c43bef4c69bfb48d6ecd413e7f7128920914e4130 yes 100