Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

This extreme-tail geopolitical market is pricing in only a 3% probability of U.S. war declaration on Iran within 14 days, yet shows an extraordinary 86,062% implied yield on Yes contracts—a massive risk-reward asymmetry typical of deep out-of-the-money binary bets. The 2,609% realized volatility and 32 Cliff Risk Index suggest sharp intraday swings despite modest $11.8M daily volume, indicating thin liquidity relative to the $41.2M open interest and potential for slippage on larger positions. With just two weeks to expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.0 per hour, any geopolitical escalation could trigger rapid repricing, though the neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action (2¢ to 3¢) suggest current market sentiment remains stable absent breaking news.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade