Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?
0x930c1ae0fdb23f71821c92e5dea1e6bd2b30b4d28ff5112a659c9f8b3871a1a5 · closes Jun 7, 2026 · 54 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 1007.0% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 447.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.2% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 504% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
9 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
The 2026 French Open is scheduled for May 18 - June 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the French Open (https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x930c1ae0fdb23f71821c92e5dea1e6bd2b30b4d28ff5112a659c9f8b3871a1a5 yes 100