Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
0xa24c185482fd2ea9639b52da9281504712c04d642f53d4474ed25b6824c73ba6 · closes May 16, 2026 · 32 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 27062.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 47.0% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 24 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.25 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 10149% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
45 indicator snapshots · 6 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026. This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the televote in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026. All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xa24c185482fd2ea9639b52da9281504712c04d642f53d4474ed25b6824c73ba6 yes 100