Will France win Eurovision 2026?
0xac5a968ce63080fd83fcb9a8eb73512f0ad4f0c689a86740b37969f5fb62bb78 · closes May 16, 2026 · 32 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 7558.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 168.8% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 7 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.2% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.00 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 621% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.65 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.6/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 7559% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
39 indicator snapshots · 54 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xac5a968ce63080fd83fcb9a8eb73512f0ad4f0c689a86740b37969f5fb62bb78 yes 100