Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)

Real Salt Lake's -1.5 spread is trading at a steep 21¢ discount despite $96.9k open interest, reflecting the low probability (21%) of a 2+ goal RSL victory. The market has collapsed 48¢ to 21¢ over 7 days with zero 24h volume and a massive 20,264% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either stale pricing or extreme illiquidity with a Cliff Risk Index of 4. With only 7 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.9/hour, this appears to be a dead or mispriced market that warrants caution given the wide 18¢ spread and lack of recent trading activity.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for April 22 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Real Salt Lake" if Real Salt Lake win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Inter Miami CF". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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Trade