Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$281
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
190 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “Where will Neymar go next” vs “Will Meredith Marks be on any episode of the Real Housewives of Salt Lake before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Where will Neymar go next
Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-MIA
Cluster 2
Will Meredith Marks be on any episode of the Real Housewives of Salt Lake before 2027
Cluster 3
Where will Cristiano Ronaldo go next
Where will Cristiano Ronaldo go next?: Inter Miami FC
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02CRONALDO-MIA
Analysis
This 29% probability reflects the likelihood of Real Salt Lake defeating Inter Miami CF in an upcoming match. The current level appears driven by team form, recent performance records, and head-to-head matchup dynamics between the two MLS clubs. Inter Miami's recent acquisitions and roster strength relative to Real Salt Lake's current lineup would be central to assessing whether this probability should move higher or lower. The match result itself will resolve this contract, making the actual game date the primary catalyst for clarifying whether 29% accurately captured Real Salt Lake's chances.
- ›Real Salt Lake's current league standing and win-loss record compared to Inter Miami CF's recent form
- ›Inter Miami's player availability and roster composition, particularly recent signings and their integration into the team
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between these two clubs over the past 2-3 seasons
- ›Home vs. away designation and venue factors, including elevation effects if the match is in Salt Lake City
- ›Real Salt Lake's actual match date against Inter Miami, which serves as the definitive resolution event
What moved the line
- Jun 18Meredith Marks↓4pp82→78¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Inter Miami↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Meredith Marks↑3pp78→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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