Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (97%) that Anthropic will not IPO by June 30, 2026, with just 74 days to expiry, though the modest $298.48 daily volume and tight $22,509.73 open interest suggest limited liquidity for a binary outcome this close to resolution. The asymmetric implied yields—15.3% for "No" versus an extreme 15,965% for "Yes"—reflect the market's conviction that an IPO is highly unlikely in the remaining timeframe, with the 1¢ spread indicating consensus pricing. The recent 1¢ price decline over seven days and neutral regime score suggest the market has largely settled on this outcome, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 32 indicates meaningful tail risk if unexpected IPO developments emerge before expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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