Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026?
0xb01ccc1a20c750020ac0282d5e9f5d8e1198c85b3cb72700ba11a34878c42811 · closes May 1, 2026 · 17 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 32922.6% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 134.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 16 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1757% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.95 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.8/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 32923% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
157 indicator snapshots · 5 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xb01ccc1a20c750020ac0282d5e9f5d8e1198c85b3cb72700ba11a34878c42811 yes 100