Will Donald Trump visit Illinois in 2026?
0xbcf57b63ecb0c09cc966552e65e30e81dec8e042cfde8ae0cab74889fdc099ca · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 261 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 145.4% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 134.2% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 17.3% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1525% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 13.01 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 4.5/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 145% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
447 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xbcf57b63ecb0c09cc966552e65e30e81dec8e042cfde8ae0cab74889fdc099ca yes 100