Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 12% probability of sub-1.0% Q1 2026 GDP growth, reflecting strong consensus expectations for continued economic expansion, though the extreme 20,451% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggests minimal liquidity depth for that outcome.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 12% probability of sub-1.0% Q1 2026 GDP growth, reflecting strong consensus expectations for continued economic expansion, though the extreme 20,451% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggests minimal liquidity depth for that outcome. With just 13 days to resolution and $789k in 24-hour volume against $9.2M open interest, the market shows reasonable activity, but the 949% realized volatility and high cliff risk index (7) indicate significant uncertainty despite the low headline price. The modest 2-cent price increase over seven days and neutral regime score suggest the market is relatively stable, though traders should note the resolution hinges on the April 30 "Advance Estimate" release with no room for interpretation if values fall between brackets.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
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sf trade 0xbf7d903a72d0450260093c13010a773f138ca61cfd3e9a7022ef058c255fb79a yes 100