Will the Democratic Party win the AK-AL House seat?

The Democratic contract has declined sharply from 33¢ to 26¢ over the past week, signaling deteriorating odds in what is traditionally a heavily Republican district, though the 525% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing risk if Democrats mount an unexpected challenge. With zero 24-hour volume despite $12.6M in open interest and a tight 2¢ spread, liquidity appears concentrated rather than active, raising questions about true market conviction. The 198-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample time for political developments, but the neutral regime score and modest Cliff Risk Index of 3 suggest the market is pricing in a stable Republican lean without major tail risks.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade