Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a staggering 9,818% implied yield on the Yes side despite $628k open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 15¢ price reflects illiquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. The sharp 7-point price decline over a week combined with a 1,303% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk (6/10) indicates this contract has experienced significant volatility spikes, likely from thin order books rather than fundamental information arrival. With only 21 days to expiry and the resolution depending on April 2026 temperature data that won't be finalized until May, the extreme yield differential and wide 6¢ spread signal this is a speculative, low-conviction market where counterparty risk and execution difficulty may outweigh the apparent arbitrage opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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