Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?

This narrow outcome band (6-8% Democratic popular vote margin) is pricing in at just 23¢ despite showing extreme realized volatility of 2,824% and a 9.37 vol ratio, suggesting significant uncertainty around the final margin rather than conviction the outcome falls outside this range. The 410% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the sharp 7-day rally from 20¢ to 31¢, though current 23¢ pricing appears to have pulled back, and thin $167.57 daily volume raises liquidity concerns for a market with $6.1M open interest. With 198 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, this market appears to be pricing in that Democrats are more likely to win by a substantially different margin (either larger or smaller than 6-8%), making this a contrarian bet on a specific middle-ground outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

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