Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Cory Booker 2028 nomination market is pricing in a 68% probability with unusually asymmetric yields—the "No" side offers 103.9% annualized return versus just 32.9% for "Yes"—suggesting the market heavily discounts his candidacy despite the relatively high yes-price. The extreme 136% realized volatility and 2.33 vol ratio indicate significant uncertainty or sporadic trading activity, while the minimal $1 daily volume and $5,202 open interest reveal dangerously thin liquidity that could make execution difficult and prices unreliable. With 625 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of only 2, the market has ample time for information arrival (0.8 signals per hour), though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action (63¢ to 64¢) suggest no recent catalysts have moved sentiment materially.

Resolution rules

If Cory Booker announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade