Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This market on Chris Murphy's 2028 Democratic nomination bid shows extremely thin liquidity with just $719 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 66¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 30.1% implied yield on the Yes side appears attractive but is offset by the 113.4% yield on No, suggesting the market may be mispriced due to illiquidity rather than reflecting genuine probability assessment. With 625 days to expiration and minimal trading activity, this contract carries significant execution risk and should be approached cautiously despite the long time horizon.

Resolution rules

If Chris Murphy announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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