Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Elissa Slotkin nomination market shows a sharp 44% price surge over seven days (32¢ to 46¢), suggesting recent positive news catalysts, though the extremely thin $1 daily volume and wide 5¢ spread indicate severe illiquidity that could amplify volatility. The 68.6% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated relative to the 34% risk-adjusted return, reflecting the market's uncertainty and the substantial time remaining until the January 1, 2028 deadline (625 days). With only $4,723 in open interest and a cliff risk index of 1, this appears to be a niche position with limited market depth and potential for sharp repricing on any campaign announcements.

Resolution rules

If Elissa Slotkin announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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