Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Hunter Biden nomination market shows extreme mispricing with a 472.8% implied yield on the Yes side against just $5,256 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting illiquidity is driving the distortion rather than genuine probability assessment. The 11¢ price implies only an 11% chance despite Biden family political prominence and the 625-day timeframe providing ample opportunity for such an announcement, while the 1¢ spread indicates minimal market depth. The high cliff risk index of 8 combined with neutral regime conditions suggests this contract could experience sharp repricing if any Biden family political developments occur, making it a speculative play rather than a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

If Hunter Biden announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade