Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This market on Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker's 2028 Democratic primary candidacy is pricing in an 80% probability with notably asymmetric risk-adjusted yields (110% overall), driven by an extreme 219.8% implied yield on the No side that suggests severe underpricing of a non-candidacy scenario. The contract has appreciated 5 cents over seven days on thin liquidity ($70 24h volume, $2,725 open interest), and the 1-cent spread indicates reasonable pricing efficiency despite the low activity. With 625 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 4, the market appears to be overweighting Pritzker's candidacy probability relative to the substantial tail risk embedded in the No-side yields.

Resolution rules

If J.B. Pritzker announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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