Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Jon Stewart nomination market shows extreme asymmetry with a 266% implied yield on Yes versus 12.8% on No, suggesting significant underpricing of the Yes outcome relative to risk-adjusted returns. The 19¢ price has climbed 2 cents over seven days on minimal volume ($114 in 24h), indicating thin liquidity that could amplify moves if larger positions enter; the $9,371 open interest and 2¢ spread reflect this illiquidity. With 625 days to expiry and a moderate 5 cliff risk index, the market has substantial time for resolution but the extreme yield differential and low volume warrant caution about execution risk on larger trades.

Resolution rules

If Jon Stewart announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade