Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Michelle Obama 2028 nomination market is pricing in just an 8% probability despite offering an extraordinary 672% annualized yield on a Yes position, suggesting significant skepticism about her candidacy announcement within 625 days. The $0 24-hour volume and $6,221 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the 4¢ spread potentially misleading as a true execution cost. The 12 cliff risk index and sharp yield asymmetry (672% Yes vs. 5.1% No) warrant caution—this appears to be a low-conviction, thinly-traded market where the headline yield may not reflect realistic entry/exit conditions.

Resolution rules

If Michelle Obama announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade