Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Pete Buttigieg 2028 nomination market is pricing in an 84% probability despite zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of just $3,230, suggesting very thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The asymmetric implied yields—13.7% for Yes versus 249.1% for No—indicate the market is heavily skewed toward a Buttigieg candidacy, though the recent 2-cent decline over seven days (83¢ to 81¢) hints at slight erosion in conviction. With 625 days until expiration and a moderate 4 Cliff Risk Index, there's substantial time for political developments to reshape expectations, but traders should be cautious given the illiquid conditions that could make entry and exit challenging.

Resolution rules

If Pete Buttigieg announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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