Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Phil Murphy nomination market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,186 in open interest, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 136% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 25% yield on No, suggesting either significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about Murphy's candidacy intentions with 625 days until resolution. The 6¢ spread is wide relative to the contract price, and the minimal price movement (29¢ to 30¢ over seven days) combined with no trading activity indicates this contract lacks meaningful price discovery.

Resolution rules

If Phil Murphy announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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