Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This market on Ro Khanna's 2028 Democratic primary candidacy shows a sharp 6-cent decline over seven days (73¢ to 67¢), suggesting recent negative sentiment, though the 71¢ current price still implies a 71% probability he'll run. The extremely asymmetric implied yields—28.8% for Yes versus 118.6% for No—combined with very thin liquidity ($3,883 open interest, $20 daily volume) and a wide 4-cent spread indicate this is a low-conviction market where the No side is heavily underpriced relative to risk. The 2.95 volatility ratio and 159% realized volatility signal substantial uncertainty despite the high headline probability, suggesting traders should be cautious about the reliability of the 71¢ price.

Resolution rules

If Ro Khanna announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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