Will average **gas prices** be above $3.80?

The market is pricing in a 90% probability of gas exceeding $3.80 by late April 2026, but the extreme 18,825% implied yield on the No side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $63.7k open interest is modest for such a definitive forecast. With only 12 days to expiry, the 280% realized volatility and recent 5-cent decline from 93¢ suggest late-stage uncertainty despite the heavily skewed price, and the 6 Cliff Risk Index indicates potential sharp moves as resolution approaches.

Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.80 on Apr 30, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade