Will average **gas prices** be above $4.00?
Prediction markets currently give a 81% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $4.00?. This contract trades at 81¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market is pricing in an 87% probability of gas prices exceeding $4.00 by late April 2026, with the Yes position up 5 cents over the past week, but the extreme 22,093.8% implied yield on the No side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns on that contract leg.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 87% probability of gas prices exceeding $4.00 by late April 2026, with the Yes position up 5 cents over the past week, but the extreme 22,093.8% implied yield on the No side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns on that contract leg. With only $34,485 in open interest and an 11-day window to expiration, the 3-cent spread is relatively tight, though the 3,105% realized volatility and 7.0 cliff risk index suggest this market could experience sharp repricing as we approach the April 30 resolution date.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.00 on Apr 30, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASM-26APR30-4.00 yes 100