What is the current probability for "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 8 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 33012.7% and 613.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will average gas prices be above $4.20?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $4.20?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 12/14¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $9,583.85·OI $51,685.93·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining

KXAAAGASM-26APR30-4.20

7-day price798 snapshots · 98 regime

79¢12¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.20 on Apr 30, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 33012.7%

IY (No) 613.9%

Adj IY 24760%

CRI 7

RV 1926%

VR 1.12

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	33012.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	613.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	24760%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1926%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.12	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:36:42 AM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:23:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAAAGASM-26APR30-4.20 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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