Will average **gas prices** be above $4.30?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $4.30?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The Yes contract has collapsed 75% over seven days to just 7¢, implying only a 7% probability of average U.S.
Analysis
The Yes contract has collapsed 75% over seven days to just 7¢, implying only a 7% probability of average U.S. gas exceeding $4.30 by April 30, 2026, yet the asymmetric implied yields (49,087% for Yes vs. 278% for No) and extreme realized volatility of 3,684% suggest significant mispricing or tail-risk positioning rather than fundamental conviction. With only $14.5K in 24-hour volume against $51.8K open interest and a wide 6¢ spread, liquidity is thin enough that the dramatic price movement may reflect forced liquidations or small-volume trades rather than genuine probability reassessment. The cliff risk index of 13 and 1.7 information arrivals per hour indicate elevated uncertainty heading into the 10-day expiry, making this market potentially exploitable for informed traders with conviction on near-term energy prices.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.30 on Apr 30, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASM-26APR30-4.30 yes 100