Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely bullish gas outlook with a 96% probability that average prices exceed $5.00 by end-2026, yet the extraordinarily high implied yield of 401.7% on the Yes side and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an extremely bullish gas outlook with a 96% probability that average prices exceed $5.00 by end-2026, yet the extraordinarily high implied yield of 401.7% on the Yes side and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. The 10¢ spread is substantial relative to the 96¢ price, and the realized volatility of 701% combined with a 2.96 vol ratio indicates this thin-liquidity market experiences wild swings—the price jumped from 16¢ to 26¢ over seven days—making the extreme probability estimate unreliable. With only $2,056 in open interest and 259 days to expiry, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a well-calibrated forecast.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for New York are strictly greater than $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-5.00 yes 100