Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The Yes contract has collapsed from 17¢ to 7¢ over seven days, signaling strong market conviction that gas prices will remain at or below $5.20 by year-end 2026, despite the astronomical 689% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
The Yes contract has collapsed from 17¢ to 7¢ over seven days, signaling strong market conviction that gas prices will remain at or below $5.20 by year-end 2026, despite the astronomical 689% implied yield on the Yes side. With only $502.35 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, this illiquid market carries a wide 10¢ spread and moderate cliff risk (5/10), making the extreme yield potentially misleading given the thin order book. The neutral regime score and 259-day timeframe suggest the market is pricing in mean reversion from recent highs, though the sharp recent repricing warrants caution about potential liquidity traps.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for New York are strictly greater than $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-5.20 yes 100