Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 17% chance of gas exceeding $4.40 by year-end 2026, reflecting current expectations that prices will remain subdued over the next 259 days.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 17% chance of gas exceeding $4.40 by year-end 2026, reflecting current expectations that prices will remain subdued over the next 259 days. The Yes side offers an exceptional 262% implied yield, but this is paired with extremely thin liquidity ($6 daily volume, $1,351 open interest) and a wide 10¢ spread, creating significant execution risk for any meaningful position. The sharp recent rally from 28¢ to 35¢ over seven days suggests some accumulation of bullish conviction, though the low absolute price and neutral regime score indicate the market views a sub-$4.40 outcome as the base case.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Texas are strictly greater than $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.40 yes 100