Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.10 by Dec 31, 2026?
KXAAAGASMINCA-26DEC31-4.10 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 262 days remaining
Price
Last
27¢
Bid
22¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
4¢
24h Volume
$52.25
Open Interest
$6,515.07
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 493.7% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | 39.000 | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.6% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.18 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 202% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
28 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.442
Label
neutral
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 11:32:01 AM
About this market
If average regular gas prices for California are strictly lower than $4.10 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXAAAGASMINCA-26DEC31-4.10 yes 100