Will average **gas prices** be above or below $1.90 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $1.90 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely bullish gas price outlook, with the "Yes" contract (below $1.90) trading at just 3¢ and implying a 3387% yield—an extraordinarily high return that reflects severe illiquidity and minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume).
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely bullish gas price outlook, with the "Yes" contract (below $1.90) trading at just 3¢ and implying a 3387% yield—an extraordinarily high return that reflects severe illiquidity and minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume). The 2¢ spread and $3,398 open interest suggest this is a thin, speculative position rather than a liquid consensus market, making the extreme yield figure more of a mathematical artifact than a realistic opportunity. With 259 days to expiration and current Texas gas prices well above $1.90, the market is essentially pricing near-zero probability that prices will average below that threshold by year-end 2026, which aligns with historical trends but warrants caution given the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Texas are strictly lower than $1.90 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMINTX-26DEC31-1.90 yes 100