What is the current probability for "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.980?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 84¢ (84% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 27, 2026. 5 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.980?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2134.4% and 23922.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will average **gas prices** be above $3.980?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will average gas prices be above $3.980?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $3.980?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing April 27, 2026.

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84¢

Bid/Ask 75/86¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $7,527.71·OI $7,346.55·Closes Apr 27, 2026·5d remaining

KXAAAGASW-26APR27-3.980

7-day price195 snapshots · 21 regime

89¢75¢ current

Apr 2039¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.980 on Apr 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2134.4%

IY (No) 23922.4%

Adj IY 20195%

CRI 3

RV 2453%

VR 3.85

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2134.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	23922.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	20195%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2453%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.85	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	5.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.16	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:30:33 AM

Depth change (1h) +0.0%

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:23:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAAAGASW-26APR27-3.980 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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