What is the current probability for "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.000?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 79¢ (79% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 27, 2026. 5 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.000?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2918.6% and 17494.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.000?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will average gas prices be above $4.000?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $4.000?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Kalshi, closing April 27, 2026.

████████████████████████████████░░░░░░░░

79¢

Bid/Ask 70/78¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $18,537.4·OI $14,662.11·Closes Apr 27, 2026·5d remaining

KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.000

7-day price221 snapshots · 25 regime

79¢70¢ current

Apr 2026¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.000 on Apr 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2918.6%

IY (No) 17494.5%

Adj IY 15031%

CRI 2

RV 3081%

VR 3.69

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2918.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	17494.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	15031%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3081%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.69	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	6.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.14	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:36:26 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:23:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.000 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions