What is the current probability for "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 57¢ (57% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 27, 2026. 5 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 5390.6% and 9472.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will average gas prices be above $4.020?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing April 27, 2026.

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57¢

Bid/Ask 55/66¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $8,692.27·OI $7,875.6·Closes Apr 27, 2026·5d remaining

KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.020

7-day price217 snapshots · 24 regime

68¢61¢ current

Apr 2011¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.020 on Apr 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5390.6%

IY (No) 9472.1%

Adj IY 7644%

CRI 1

RV 5394%

VR 4.26

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	5390.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9472.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	7644%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	5394%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.26	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	6.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.19	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:36:25 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:23:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.020 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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