What is the current probability for "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.040?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 47¢ (47% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 27, 2026. 5 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.040?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 9867.8% and 5174.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.040?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will average gas prices be above $4.040?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $4.040?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing April 27, 2026.

███████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

47¢

Bid/Ask 41/48¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $3,409.2·OI $6,074.46·Closes Apr 27, 2026·5d remaining

KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.040

7-day price180 snapshots · 21 regime

64¢45¢ current

Apr 206¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.040 on Apr 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 9867.8%

IY (No) 5174.4%

Adj IY 5873%

CRI 1

RV 6251%

VR 2.62

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	9867.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5174.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5873%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	6251%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.62	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	5.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.40	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:30:39 AM

Depth change (1h) +3.5%

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:23:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.040 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions