ADP employment change in Sep 2026?
KXADP-26SEP-T-25000 · closes Sep 30, 2026 · 170 days remaining
Price
Last
92¢
Bid
89¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
4¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$501
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 26.6% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 1738.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 8 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 1.7% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 869% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
0 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:08:56 PM
About this market
If the ADP Employment Change in Sep 2026 is above -25000, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXADP-26SEP-T-25000 yes 100