Will The Marías release a new album in 2026?
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-MARI · closes Jan 1, 2027 · 263 days remaining
Price
Last
50¢
Bid
37¢
Ask
50¢
Spread
13¢
24h Volume
$58.58
Open Interest
$974.08
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 236.7% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 81.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 46.5% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 118% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
28 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
13¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:33:34 PM
About this market
If The Marías releases a new album in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXALBUMRELEASE-26-MARI yes 100