Will James Duckworth win the Duckworth vs Napolitano: Final match?
KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26APR12DUCNAP-DUC · closes Apr 26, 2026 · 13 days remaining
Price
Last
27¢
Bid
25¢
Ask
27¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$2,212,079
Open Interest
$1,019,139
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 8741.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 871.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.08 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2701% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 5.04 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 4.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 8013% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
129 indicator snapshots · 17 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:15:04 PM
About this market
If James Duckworth wins the Duckworth vs Napolitano professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Mexico City Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26APR12DUCNAP-DUC yes 100