Will Stefano Napolitano win the Duckworth vs Napolitano: Final match?
KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26APR12DUCNAP-NAP · closes Apr 26, 2026 · 13 days remaining
Price
Last
74¢
Bid
73¢
Ask
74¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$1,345,280
Open Interest
$588,906
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 978.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 7924.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.01 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2360% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 4.16 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 3.8/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 7818% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
120 indicator snapshots · 16 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 6:00:37 PM
About this market
If Stefano Napolitano wins the Duckworth vs Napolitano professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Mexico City Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26APR12DUCNAP-NAP yes 100