Will Juan Manuel La Serna win the Estevez vs La Serna: Round Of 32 match?
KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26APR13ESTLA-LA · closes Apr 27, 2026 · 14 days remaining
Price
Last
53¢
Bid
52¢
Ask
54¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$203
Open Interest
$203
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 2378.7% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 2791.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 3689% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 6.67 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.8/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2792% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
21 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:33:46 PM
About this market
If Juan Manuel La Serna wins the Estevez vs La Serna professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Santa Cruz Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26APR13ESTLA-LA yes 100