Will Linang Xiao win the Xiao vs Ellis: Round Of 32 match?
KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26APR13XIAELL-XIA · closes Apr 27, 2026 · 14 days remaining
Price
Last
29¢
Bid
27¢
Ask
29¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$4,127
Open Interest
$2,333
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 7261.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 993.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.11 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1577% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.45 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.8/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 6454% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
16 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:14:12 PM
About this market
If Linang Xiao wins the Xiao vs Ellis professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Wuning 2 Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26APR13XIAELL-XIA yes 100