Will Charles Broom win the Tu vs Broom: Semifinal match?

The market is pricing Broom at 48¢ with extremely asymmetric yields—the "No" side shows an implausible 13,765% implied yield versus 499% for "Yes," suggesting potential mispricing or liquidity constraints on the underdog side. With $753k in 24-hour volume against $419k open interest and a 6¢ spread, liquidity is moderate but the 4,016% realized volatility and 7.58 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced dramatic swings, likely driven by the 2.7 information arrivals per hour in the lead-up to the May 2nd expiry. The cliff risk index of 5 combined with the 14-day countdown suggests binary event risk typical of sports betting markets where late-breaking news can shift odds sharply.

Resolution rules

If Charles Broom wins the Tu vs Broom professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Wuning 2 Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Regime

Trade