Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

The Democratic Florida governor contract is pricing in a heavily underdog scenario at 27¢, reflecting Republican dominance in the state, though the extreme 496% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant mispricing potential if fundamentals shift. With $38.3M in open interest but only $241 in 24-hour volume, this market suffers from severe liquidity constraints that likely explains both the wide 3¢ spread and the outsized yield metrics. The 598% realized volatility and 2.43 vol ratio indicate substantial price swings despite thin trading, suggesting caution around these yield figures as they may not represent realistic execution opportunities at quoted prices.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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