Will Bernie Sanders endorse Charles Booker in the 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky before Nov 3, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will Bernie Sanders endorse Charles Booker in the 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky before Nov 3, 2026?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market is pricing in a 93% probability of Sanders endorsing Booker, with the price surging 14 cents over the past week, suggesting recent developments have strengthened conviction around this outcome.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 93% probability of Sanders endorsing Booker, with the price surging 14 cents over the past week, suggesting recent developments have strengthened conviction around this outcome. However, the extreme 2417% implied yield on the "No" side and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity and potential mispricing of tail risk, making the contract difficult to trade despite its $3,646 open interest. The 13-point cliff risk index warrants caution, as binary endorsement events can resolve unexpectedly, and the 201-day timeframe leaves substantial room for political dynamics to shift.
Resolution rules
If Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Charles Booker in the 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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sf trade KXBERNIEENDORSE-26NOV03-CBOO yes 100