What is the current probability for "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 26¢ (26% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 496.3% and 44.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 17¢ price implies a modest 17% probability despite an exceptionally high 640% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the market may be underpricing a policy that Trump has publicly discussed and could execute via executive order.

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26¢

Bid/Ask 23/26¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $340.15·OI $38,874.37·Closes Jan 1, 2027·246d remaining

KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01

7-day price211 snapshots · 24 regime

25¢23¢ current

Apr 816¢Apr 30

Analysis

13d ago

The 17¢ price implies a modest 17% probability despite an exceptionally high 640% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the market may be underpricing a policy that Trump has publicly discussed and could execute via executive order. Zero 24-hour volume combined with $38,325 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates illiquid pricing that could shift sharply on policy announcements, particularly given the 260-day timeframe allows ample opportunity for executive action. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price movement mask potential cliff risk (index of 5), as this binary hinges on a single policy decision rather than gradual probability shifts.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 24¢(Δ +2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94IY 472.6%Close-time delta 39h

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump has issued an executive order or his Administration takes an executive action (including signing a bill into law) creating a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” “National Bitcoin Reserve,” or any other formal government-held stockpile of Bitcoin after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 496.3%

IY (No) 44.3%

Adj IY 216%

CRI 3

EE 16.000

LAS 0.13

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	496.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	44.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	216%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	16.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
LAS	0.13	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 10:31:44 AM

SF edge 17.0¢ yesObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +17¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 10:23:45 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →