Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 450 cava restaurants in Q1 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 450 cava restaurants in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Kalshi, closing June 13, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in a binary outcome on CAVA's restaurant count.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in a binary outcome on CAVA's restaurant count. The implied probability of 0% contradicts the 91¢ current price (which would suggest ~91% probability), indicating severe pricing dysfunction—likely a result of the no-liquidity environment where the last trade may not reflect true market sentiment. With 55 days to expiry and a high Cliff Risk Index of 10, this market poses significant execution risk for any position, making it unsuitable for serious capital allocation until liquidity materially improves.
Resolution rules
If CAVA Group Inc. reports Above 450 cava restaurants in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCAVA-26MAYREST-450 yes 100