Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 3, 2027. This market prices Ohio as a highly unlikely candidate for the tightest 2026 Senate race at just 15¢, yet the extreme 1258% implied yield on Yes positions reflects the asymmetric payoff structure typical of long-shot binary events.
Analysis
This market prices Ohio as a highly unlikely candidate for the tightest 2026 Senate race at just 15¢, yet the extreme 1258% implied yield on Yes positions reflects the asymmetric payoff structure typical of long-shot binary events. The thin liquidity ($5,976.97 open interest, $76.91 daily volume) and wide 5¢ spread suggest limited market conviction, while the recent price decline from 12¢ to 10¢ over seven days indicates weakening confidence in an Ohio squeaker despite 261 days to expiry. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 9 warns that resolution hinges on a specific comparative outcome across multiple races, introducing execution risk beyond simple binary prediction.
Resolution rules
If Ohio has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCLOSESTSENATE-27JAN03-OH yes 100