Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, o.... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This contract prices an extraordinarily unlikely corporate combination at just 4 cents, implying a 4% probability despite an eye-watering 11,651% annualized yield for "Yes" positions—a massive risk premium reflecting the near-zero liquidity ($2,496.83 open interest, zero 24-hour volume) and extreme binary nature of the event.
Analysis
This contract prices an extraordinarily unlikely corporate combination at just 4 cents, implying a 4% probability despite an eye-watering 11,651% annualized yield for "Yes" positions—a massive risk premium reflecting the near-zero liquidity ($2,496.83 open interest, zero 24-hour volume) and extreme binary nature of the event. The 1-cent spread is wide relative to the price, and with 75 days to expiration, the contract has moved only 1 cent over seven days, suggesting minimal market conviction or activity. The 24 Cliff Risk Index indicates meaningful tail risk concentration, making this primarily a speculative instrument rather than a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26JUL01 yes 100